The Oklahoma City Thunder were historical betting favorites heading into the NBA Finals. After losing Game 1 at home to the Indiana Pacers, however, they’re on the verge of making the kind of betting history no one wants to be part of.
The Thunder were -800 at BetMGM Sportsbook heading into Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Those were tied for the fifth-shortest odds to win the title in NBA history. Every other team with -800 odds or lower won the championship.
After losing Game 1, however, the Thunder are now -350 at BetMGM Sportsbook. They're -300 at DraftKings if you're looking for better odds.
The Pacers, meanwhile, were +500 at DraftKings coming into the series and are now +245 at DK. You could easily argue those odds are disrespectful, considering 70.5% of the teams that win Game 1 of the NBA Finals (55 of 88) went on to win the series.
That said, road teams that win Game 1 of the NBA Finals are just 3-4 over the last 30 years. The Celtics were the most recent team to win Game 1 on the road against the Warriors in 2022. The Warriors won that series 4-2.
Historically, only the 2004 Pistons won the NBA Finals with +500 odds or higher. The Pacers could tie the Pistons as the biggest underdog heading into the finals to win the title.
The Thunder already made one bad piece of NBA Finals betting history by losing Game 1. They are the first team that was a betting favorite of six or more points to lose the game. They were -9 at DraftKings.
Oddsmakers aren’t backing off the Thunder despite their poor performance in Game 1. DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbooks list them as -11 point favorites in Game 2. They're -11.5 at BetMGM.
Before you rush off to bet the Thunder, the Pacers are 12-5 against the spread as underdogs with eight outright wins.
The Thunder lost Game 1 at home to the Nuggets in the Western Conference finals and won that series in seven. However, the Pacers have had an epic run in these playoffs, overcoming big deficits and making clutch shots to stun big favorites throughout.
One of those recent trends will end in these Finals, which are already off to a historic start.