So it’s come to this.

Like Manchester United in Wednesday night’s Europa League final, a disappointing season all comes down to one game for Arsenal. There is no Champions League qualification at stake, rendering this game a quest for pride and glory rather than fulfilling any objective set before the start of the season, but ending the season with a trophy would hand Arsene Wenger the sort of triumph that neither Jurgen Klopp, Mauricio Pochettino nor Pep Guardiola can claim this year.

And yet, this is a game where the Gunners take on the most ruthlessly efficient team of the season in Chelsea. And they’ll do so without a large chunk of important defensive players. Winning this would represent an achievement, but the difficulty level has been raised yet again.

Laurent Koscielny’s own stupidity robbed him of the chance to play in the final when he lunged at Enner Valencia on Sunday’s final Premier League game of the season, and the error was then compounded shortly afterwards when centre-back partner Gabriel injured himself making a tackle. With Shkodran Mustafi also doubtful for the cup final this weekend, Arsenal will be without their three most important defenders against a team including the front three of Eden Hazard, Diego Costa and Pedro. Chelsea are the second most potent attack in the Premier League.

And yet, that could well be a blessing in disguise for the Gunners.

For one thing, it creates an unknown for Chelsea. Over the last few weeks, Arsenal have switched to a back three formation and looked quite good doing it. Their season stuttered massively in April with a 3-0 defeat to Crystal Palace looking like the absolute low-point. Since then, the switch to the back three has seen the Gunners win every game barring one: the north London derby defeat to Tottenham. A switch to a back four this weekend could be a necessity after their spate of injuries, but that could sow the seed of doubt into Antonio Conte’s mind as he ponders his approach to the game.

Whatever their faults, Arsenal’s regular centre-back pairing of Shkodran Mustafi and Laurent Koscielny are two of the most effective defenders in the league at winning offsides by stepping up. On average, the two combine to win more than two offsides per game. It’s not the most striking statistic when it comes to the Gunners’ defensive play – they’ve conceded more goals than any other side in the top six – but it could be a significant one this weekend.

That’s because an approach which favours catching the opposition offside would seem to be less effective against Chelsea, who – on average – are caught offside only 1.7 times per game. That puts them firmly in the bottom half of the table for offsides.

That doesn’t sound particularly important, but it points to a significant trend in Arsenal’s season: of the six teams to have been caught offside fewer times than Chelsea, only Swansea didn’t manage to take at least a point off Arsenal this season. In a Premier League season characterised by the top six teams beating the rest with consummate ease, that is a shocking statistic when you consider that the teams in question include Watford, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Middlesbrough.

The teams who sit deeper and don’t try to run in behind quite so often are the teams the Gunners struggle against, and that would normally play into Chelsea’s hands.

But Arsenal’s injury woes might well lead to the inexperienced Rob Holding, the almost forgotten Per Mertesacker or even left-back Nacho Monreal taking central berths in a makeshift defence at Wembley on Saturday. So whatever formation Arsene Wenger selects, the personnel will create an unknown for Antonio Conte’s side: just how will they set up to defend against one of the league’s most prolific attacks?

The injuries and suspensions the Gunners have suffered in the run-up to the cup final are far from ideal, but they could be the blessing in disguise that disrupts Chelsea’s game plan and helps Arsenal to victory.

The defence Wenger chooses will be key to the outcome of the game, and anything to throw a curveball Conte’s way will probably turn out to be Arsenal’s best chance for victory.